ASCENT BULK – DRYBULK MARKET COMMENTS/ WEEK 48-2024

A. ECONOMIC NEWS

Vietnam: According to the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), Vietnam ranked as the 8th largest trade partner of the U.S. in November 2024. Bilateral trade reached $109.1 billion, marking a 20.13% increase from 2023 and accounting for 2.8% of total U.S. import-export turnover. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. stood at $99.9 billion (4.13% of U.S. imports, up 19.4%), while imports from the U.S. totaled $9.3 billion, a 29.1% rise year-on-year. The trade surplus of $90.6 billion reflected a significant 51.1% growth, outperforming other export hubs like China, India, Thailand, and Malaysia. Following a sharp decline in 2023 due to economic downturns and high inflation, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. have rebounded steadily in the first three quarters of 2024.

China: Chinese exports are forecast to reach a record high in 2024, partly driven by U.S. companies stockpiling Chinese goods to preempt potential tariff hikes by the newly elected President Donald Trump. A surge in demand for Chinese products, particularly in technology-related sectors like chips and appliances, saw U.S. imports from China rise nearly 6% during the peak months of June to October. Exports are expected to grow 5% year-on-year to $3.54 trillion in 2024, surpassing the 2022 record, with a trade surplus potentially hitting $1 trillion. However, experts warn that China’s export growth room is narrowing.

B. MARKET NEWS

1. SMALL HANDY

Small handy tonnage in the Pacific maintained a trend similar to the previous week. Vessels between 5,000 and 11,000 dwt traded within a range of low $20pmt to high $30pmt. A vessel of 11,000 dwt was fixed for a scrap cargo from Singapore to Bangladesh at low $30pmt, while a 5,000-mts bagged rice cargo from Thailand to Indonesia also secured the same freight rate. Additionally, a 23,000-dwt vessel was booked for a short period, trading in the PG area at a rate of high $7,000.

2. HANDYSIZE

The Handysize market experienced limited activity and minimal fresh updates across regions. In the Atlantic, the Continent and Mediterranean displayed flat performance with unchanged sentiment, while the South Atlantic maintained a balanced market with stable freight rates. The US Gulf saw subdued activity due to extended holidays. In the Pacific, increasing vessel availability led to softer rates, with the 7TC average declining by $29 to close at $11,865. Reported fixtures included a 38,000-dwt fixed from SW Pass to the West Coast for grains at $14,750, a 32,000-dwt from SW Pass to the Caribbean/East Coast Mexico range at $9,750, and another 38,000-dwt from the US Gulf to the West Mediterranean at $12,000. Notable fixtures in Asia included the Bunun Noble (37,655 dwt, built 2020) for a steel trip from Japan to Peru at $12,500, and the Norse Altamira (40,020 dwt, built 2022) for a voyage from West Australia to Japan carrying wheat and barley at $13,500.

3. SUPRAMAX

The Supramax market faced ongoing negative sentiment, particularly in Asia, due to a lack of fresh inquiries. The Jacob H (57,001 dwt, built 2011) was fixed at $14,000 for delivery in Surabaya for an Indonesia-China voyage. The Heng Tai Hong (56,865 dwt, built 2010) secured $8,500 for delivery in Guangzhou for a round trip via Indonesia back to China, while the SJ Colombo (55,865 dwt, built 2010) was fixed at $9,500 for delivery in Vung Tau for a similar Indo-China trip. In the Indian Ocean, a 58,000-dwt vessel was heard fixed at $9,

500 for an India coastal voyage.

BY ASCENT BULK

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